{"id":56,"date":"2013-11-28T20:20:24","date_gmt":"2013-11-28T19:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.latp.univ-mrs.fr\/~mathieu.dandonneau\/m2psav.new\/?page_id=56"},"modified":"2021-11-22T16:03:09","modified_gmt":"2021-11-22T15:03:09","slug":"modeles-probabilistes-en-genetique-des-populations-etienne-pardoux-amu","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/?page_id=56","title":{"rendered":"Mod\u00e8les probabilistes des Epid\u00e9mies, Etienne Pardoux (AMU)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le but de ce cours est de pr\u00e9senter les mod\u00e8les probabilistes des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies, leur limite loi des grands nombres, et l&rsquo;utilisation des grandes d\u00e9viations pour estimer le temps mis \u00e0 une situations end\u00e9mique pour s&rsquo;\u00e9teindre.<\/p>\n<p>1. Pr\u00e9sentation des mod\u00e8les stochastiques des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies : R0, d\u00e9but d&rsquo;une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie.<br \/>\n2. Les mod\u00e8les markoviens : Loi des Grands Nombres, Th\u00e9or\u00e8me Central Limite, Approximation diffusion.<br \/>\n3. Mod\u00e8les ferm\u00e9s : la construction de Sellke, taille totale de l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, dur\u00e9e de l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie<br \/>\n4. Mod\u00e8les ouverts : temps d&rsquo;attente pour l&rsquo;extinction, grandes d\u00e9viations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le but de ce cours est de pr\u00e9senter les mod\u00e8les probabilistes des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies, leur limite loi des grands nombres, et l&rsquo;utilisation des grandes d\u00e9viations pour estimer le temps mis \u00e0 une situations end\u00e9mique pour s&rsquo;\u00e9teindre. 1. Pr\u00e9sentation des mod\u00e8les stochastiques des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies : R0, d\u00e9but d&rsquo;une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie. 2. Les mod\u00e8les markoviens : Loi des Grands [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-56","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/56","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/56\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":236,"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/56\/revisions\/236"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/m2psav.master.edu-math.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}